THE CHINA MIRACLE OR CATASTROPHE?
Rather than depending on the laws of averages and the
laws of nature to construct the ratio of males to
females, China has tampered with its population mix by
restricting family size and sex. This experiment now
seems to be a colossal failure from one angle as
China faces a current and future serious shortage of
workers in certain age groups! Looking from another
angle though, it may be viewed as a stunning success
at slowing poverty growth and increasing GNP per
capita. Jamaica should look and learn but should it
copy the China population strategy?
POPULATION COMPARISON INDICATORS
When we look at overpopulation it cannot be looked at
in a vacuum; it must have some base. Here are a few
criteria:
- land mass (this is the most common)
- available resources
- quality of life,
- environmental degradation,
- long-term shortages of essential goods and services
- and GNP potential (this one is my personal
invention)
Jamaican stats.
| Square miles |
= 4400 est |
| Total acres |
= 4400* 640 acres |
| |
= 2,816,000 acres |
| population |
= 2,714,000 |
| population per acre ratio |
= 2,714,000/2,816,000 |
| |
= 0.9637784 |
Now clearly in terms of land mass Jamaica is not overpopulated per acre as
the population ratio of persons per acre is almost one. One could make the case
however, that it could be overpopulated for the other criteria if it could be
shown that if the population was smaller, it would result in a measurable improvement
in them. But what I focus on is GNP potential.
CAN THE GROWTH IN JAMAICA'S GNP EVER LEAD TO POVERTY ALLEVIATION?
"Gross National Product is the total value added from domestic and
foreign sources claimed by residents of a country. In other words it is GDP
(Gross Domestic Product, the value of goods and services produced within a country)
plus net income received by residents from non-resident sources. GNP/capita
is the total divided by the number of people in the country. In other words,
GNP/capita is a measure of national income per person." Wikipedia
Jamaican stats
| GNP |
2005: |
$9.03 billion |
| GNP per capita |
2005: |
$3396 |
------------------------------------
The GNP to me seems to be a more accurate indicator
than GDP because production does not always lead to
income a situation with which we are painfully
familiar.
Now then here is the question. Can the current population of Jamaica, 2.7 million,
raise the GNP to a level equal to any of the other islands with which we are
most similar? (Jamaica is last on this list.)
| COUNTRY |
GNP RANK |
GNP/CAPITA,05 |
POPULATION,07 |
| Cayman Islands |
31 |
20 667 |
47,000 |
| Aruba |
33 |
19 800 |
104,000 |
| U.S. Virgin Islands |
36 |
18 609 |
111,000 |
| Bahamas |
46 |
15 232 |
331,000 |
| Martinique |
47 |
15 063 |
399,000 |
| Netherlands Antilles |
52 |
13 552 |
192,000 |
| British Virgin Islands |
54 |
13 043 |
23,000 |
| Puerto Rico |
55 |
12 221 |
3,991000 |
| Antigua and Barbuda |
60 |
10 854 |
85,000 |
| Trinidad & Tobago |
62 |
10 444 |
1,333000 |
| Barbados |
67 |
9 741 |
294,000 |
| Guadeloupe |
68 |
9 183 |
405,000 |
| Saint Kitts & Nevis |
72 |
8 298 |
50,000 |
| Turks & Caicos Islands |
81 |
7 143 |
26,000 |
| Montserrat |
86 |
6 667 |
5,900 |
| Saint Lucia |
98 |
4 731 |
165,000 |
| Grenada |
106 |
3 925 |
106,000 |
| Dominica |
108 |
3 750 |
67,000 |
| St. Vincent Grenadines |
109 |
3 613 |
120,000 |
| Belize |
110 |
3 493 |
288,000 |
| JAMAICA |
113 |
3 396 |
2,714,000 |
Or can the population of Jamaica raise the GNP to that
of Barbados? Can this realistically ever happen? For
this to happen it means we would have to at least
double our income from where.. Bauxite, Tourism or
Agriculture? Bauxite production has peaked, tourism
investment is peaking and agriculture peaked decades
ago!! Globalization now means that competition is far
fiercer than in the seventies and so it is near
impossible to displace other suppliers to markets. The
problem seems more serious when one considers that our
population is increasing too by about 130,000 per
year!
(From CIA fact book)
Birth rate: 20.44 births/1,000 pop. (07est.)
Death rate: 6.59 deaths/1,000 pop. (07 est.)
Net migration rate:-6.07 migrant(s)/1,000 pop.(07est)
-----------------------------------------------------
NET INCREASE 7.81 (this is my calculation-simple subtraction..not sure if
this is the way it is done.)
So then if we accept the premise that "nuff man a struggle" and 3,396 GNP
per capita is too low we are clearly overpopulated based on the current number!
If we believe that the facts say we cannot double the GNP then we must be overpopulated
based on our GNP potential! If the country cannot increase its GNP per capita
significantly then it means that permanent poverty alleviation is a shocking
and real impossibility!
BASED ON THE INFORMATION HERE WHY ARE MPs CALLING FOR SALARY INCREASES?
I would not be surprised if most of our political leaders are unaware of the
real state of the nation and the future that awaits us. Partisanship does not
major in solutions and problem identification, but in winning elections and
staying in power!
What is the solution? Before solutions can be
implemented the consciousness of the country must be
prepared. Do we really want solutions? I believe I
know what some of them are but we do not want
solutions that displace our comfort zone and so sadly
in fifty years we perhaps will be in a much worse
state!
